Creating Open Shots from Beyond the Arc

Written by John McCool (@Desertrose28)    Quick Takeaways 0.194 correlation between open three pointers and 3FG% The Rockets, Celtics, and Cavaliers are among the leaders in open three point frequency   In today’s NBA, three pointers are valued more than the mid range jumper. However, recklessly shooting threes can hinder offensive performance and ball

Finding Value in the NBA Draft

Written by John McCool (@Desertrose28) The NBA draft offers a fresh start for struggling NBA teams short on prospects or skilled veterans. In particular, players drafted in lottery slots can make an instant impact in the league at a cheap price. History, however, suggests that even players picked in the lottery

Bootstrapping Expected Goal Coefficients (Part Two)

Written by John McCool (@Desertrose28) Quick Takeaways: There appears to be significant coefficient variability in the angle and rebound coefficients from 2007-08 through 2015-16 using bootstrap analysis The distance and rush coefficient remain relatively stable across seasons This suggests that current expected goal (xG) models could be biased if trained on coefficients from past seasons In the

Clustering NBA Teams by Shot Selection

Written by John McCool (@Desertrose28) Shot selection, which includes any field goal attempt from a layup to a three pointer, is a vital component to the game of basketball. NBA teams that consistently take open or high percentage shots around the basket will likely have an advantage over their competition. Teams should also

In Defense of Mike Tomlin

Written by Adam Tucker (@adamtb182) Main Takeaways Expected point gain of going for it on fourth down gives key insights as to why Mike Tomlin chose not to kick a field goal at the end of the half of yesterday’s game. Under the lens of expected point gain, are NFL coaches really acting

Are NHL Expected Goal Models Biased? (Part One)

Written by John McCool (@Desertrose28) Quick Takeaways: There is potential evidence that the rebound and rush coefficients in logistic regression models for expected goals (xG) shifted across seasons The distance and angle coefficients for xG models did not differ significantly from 2008-09 through 2015-16, though there appears to be a slow, upward shift Significant

Looking Back At Neutral Turnovers in the NHL

By: John McCool At the moment, NHL teams are using more analytics for everything - from player evaluation to game analysis. One interesting research area is how neutral zone turnovers influence scoring chances. Challenges in this study arise from separating neutral zone takeaways from other noise such as player skill, goaltending,

Long Home Runs from Unusual Suspects

By: John McCool (@desertrose28) Long Home Runs From Unusual Suspects On a hot mid-July afternoon, Starling Marte launched a 430-foot long home run against reliever Oliver Perez into the left field bleachers giving his team a 2-1 lead in the top of the eighteenth inning against the Nationals. Of his nine home