Fantasy Advice for Week 3

By: Kris Perez

QB

Jimmy Garappolo, 49ers

@CIN - 17/25 296 Yds 3 TD 1 Int (#5 QB)

Garappolo had a solid Week 2 finishing as one of the top QBs. This was certainly a bounce back from Week 1 where he finished as the 25th Fantasy QB. He did so against a Bengals Defense that currently ranks 23rd among NFL defenses against the QB, and ranked 28th in 2018. This Bengals Defense in 2019 has picked up where it left off in 2018, as a bottom of the league Defense against opposing QBs. This bounce back from Garoppolo was aided by a 38 yard TD to Marquise Goodwin where the Bengal Defense lost Goodwin in a complete breakdown. Without this big play, Garappolo would have finished closer to the back-end of QB1 territory. Despite a solid Week 2, I don’t expect Garappolo’s Top 5 performance to be a weekly occurrence as it came against a weak Bengals Defense and he only gets to play them once this year.

Verdict: Sell

Mitchell Trubisky, Bears

@DEN - 16/27 120 Yds 0 TD 0 Int (#31 QB)

Trubisky has struggled mightily this year and especially in Week 2 against Denver. While he has played against two good defenses in the much improved Packers Defense and a solid Broncos Defense, Trubisky ranks as the 28th QB in Fantasy. According to PFF’s Steve Palazzolo, Trubisky ranks 2nd in the NFL in highest percent of uncatchable passes at 27.8%. This means that nearly 1 out of 3 passes by Trubisky is uncatchable, which has led to Trubsiky having the 27th ranked Completion Percentage. The Bears are also averaging 4.8 Yards per Pass Attempt which ranks 31st in the NFL. Trubisky has not been productive so far, and I don’t expect the Bears to continue passing on 64% of their plays, which will lead to Trubisky’s Fantasy value to be very low. 

Verdict: Buy

RB

San Francisco 49er RBs - Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Matt Breida 

Raheem Mostert: 13 Rush 83 Yds 0 TD 4 Tgts 3 Rec 68 Yds 1 TD (#3 RB)

Jeff Wilson: 10 Att 34 Yds 2 TD 0 Tgt 0 Rec 0 Yds 0 TD (#11 RB)

Matt Breida: 12 Att 121 Yds 0 TD 1 Tgt 1 Rec 11 Yds 0 TD (#15 RB)

The San Francisco 49ers are currently ranked 4th in the NFL in Rushing Yards per Game. While only a limited sample size of just 2 games, the 49ers rank 2nd with 74 Attempts, making up 58% of their offensive plays. According to Football Outsider, the 49ers Offensive Line ranks 5th in the NFL with 5.10 Adjusted Line Yards which is the average number of Yards per Rush attributed to the Offensive Line. Given this, I believe that the 49ers Running Backs carry a lot of value in Fantasy. The snap count percentage among these 3 RBs break down to: Mostert 38%, Breida 36%, and Wilson 21%. Of the 3 RBs, I believe that, Mostert carries the most value in Fantasy because he is getting an equal share of the rushing offense, and he is also the most involved in the passing game among the RBs. I believe that Breida carries the second most value because he has been productive in his carries (5.9 Yards per Attempt) and leads the team in Rushing Attempts. I believe that Wilson carries the least value, but in a deep Standard league, he does carry some value. Wilson has been called the “goal line back” by Head Coach Kyle Shanahan which means that he has little Fantasy value unless he scores. I don’t expect Wilson to have many games where he scores twice, so this week is not an indication of his typical week production.

Verdict: Buy Mostert and Breida Sell Wilson

Marlon Mack, Colts (Sell)

@TEN - 20 Att 51 Yds 0 TD 3 Tgt 2 Rec 12 Yds 0 TD (#36 RB)

Mack struggled in Week 2, finishing outside the RB2 rankings. Mack, off a great Week 1 where he finished as the #4 RB, struggled against a solid Titans defense that was able to contain him to a 2.6 Yards per Carry. The rest of the Colts rushing attack produced while Mack struggled, accounting for 116 yards on 11.86 Yards per Carry. The Colts Offensive Line has been great in 2019 and has allowed the Andrew Luck-less Colts offense to be led by run, which has accounted for 53% of their plays. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts Offensive Line ranks 10th in Stuffed Percentage at 16%. This means that the line is giving the RBs space to move and make defenders miss. Additionally, The Colts rank 3rd in the NFL in RB Yards per Rush, another reason to remain optimistic on Mack. With a solid offensive line, and an offense that has relied heavily on the run, I don’t believe that Mack will have too many more games where he isn’t an RB1 in 2019.

Verdict: Sell

WR

Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs

@OAK - 6 Tgt 6 Rec 172 Yds 2 TD (#1 WR)

Robinson had a very unexpected, but huge Week 2. He finished as the #1 WR in Week 2, after finishing as the #111 WR in Week 1. His day was made by two long plays: a 44 and 39 Yard TD. Robinson was able to be productive as he slid into the Number 2 WR slot for the Chiefs with Tyreek Hill injured. Robinson’s big day was also aided by Sammy Watkins only having 6 catches for 49 yards on 13 targets. Watkins has led the team, and NFL in targets through 2 weeks, and I wouldn’t expect many more games where he is so inefficient. With such an explosive offense that has so many capable receivers, it is difficult to know who will get the big plays each week. In Week 2, it turned out that Robinson was the beneficiary of the big plays, just as Watkins was in Week 1. I don’t think the production out of Robinson in Week 2 is sustainable however, especially with Hill progressing quickly and Watkins dominating targets from Patrick Mahomes, so I wouldn’t rush to pick him up despite his exceptional Week 2.

Verdict: Sell

Dede Westbrook, Jaguars

@HOU - 5 Tgt 1 Rec 3 Yds 0 Td (#109 WR)

Westbrook had a terrible Week 2 with Gardner Minshew at the helm of the Jaguars Offense. Westbrook was the play most affected when Nick Foles went down with his collarbone injury, and it is playing out on the field. He was supposed to be Foles’ go-to WR, and held a lot of potential fantasy value. However, with Minshew as the QB, the “go-to” WR spot has gone to DJ Chark who accounted for 9 Targets (27%) in Week 2. Besides the target share numbers, the Jaguars will likely lean on the run more moving forward, in the hopes that Fournette can take the pressure off of Minshew. This was shown in Week 2 as the Jaguars rushed 21 times compared to 16 in Week 1. I wouldn’t expect many performances like this from Westbrook, but his value is severely limited for the remainder of the time that Minshew is the QB.

Verdict: Buy

TE

Mark Andrews, Ravens (Buy)

vs. ARI - 9 Tgt 8 Rec 112 Yds 1 TD (#1 TE)

Andrews picked up where he left off in Week 1 and had an excellent Week 2. Andrews has accounted for 28.3% of the Targets in the Ravens offense through 2 weeks. He has also been extremely efficient with this large volume of targets catching 94.1% of his targets, while having a 0% drop rate. Andrews has been a prolific threat for the Ravens offense this season as evidenced by his productivity down the field, averaging 82 Air Yards per Game with an Average Depth of Target of 9.6 yards. Jackson has found an extremely reliable and productive target in Andrews, and I expect him to finish the season as a Top 5 TE.

Verdict: Buy

Will Dissly, Seahawks (Wait)

@PIT - 5 Tgt 5 Rec 50 Yds 2 TD (#3 TE)

Dissly returned from a ruptured patellar tendon in a spectacular way. This big day doesn’t even include a 43 yard reception that was called back due to holding. In 2018, prior to his injury, Dissly showed real potential to be a TE1. His performance in Week 2 was another indication that he is legit. In Week 2, he accounted for 5 Targets, giving him a 14.3% Target Share in the Seahawks offense. Dissly’s 2 TDs came in the Red Zone, where through two weeks, the only 2 Targets in the Red Zone went to Dissly. If Dissly is able to continue his production in the Red Zone, he will remain a TE1 in 2019. It is always difficult to predict the performance of players coming off major injuries, but I expect Dissly to remain an integral part of the Seahawks offense and finish this season as one of the best TEs.

Verdict: Buy

Start of the Week

Nelson Agholor, Eagles vs DET

With Desean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery potentially sidelined for the next two weeks, Agholor has quickly found himself in the WR1 slot for the Eagles. In Week 2, Agholor was 2nd on the team with 11 Targets and hauled in 8 Receptions for 107 Yards and 1 TD, finishing the week as the #7 WR. With the two top WR threats gone, Agholor is the only real weapon Wentz has to stretch the field outside of Zach Ertz. In Week 2, Agholor saw his Yards per Target rise to 9.7 from 2.2 in Week 1. This week, the Eagles take on the Lions, who ranked 24th in opponent Passing Yards per Game. When he was given the opportunity to be the #1 WR option in Philadelphia last week, Agholor was very productive and I expect the same for Week 3 against the Lions, making him a Must Start.

Sit of the Week

Joe Mixon, Bengals @ BUF

Mixon is a highly talented RB who has struggled through 2 weeks in 2019. Part of the problem for Mixon, is Head Coach Zak Taylor’s new offense, which has the Bengals tied for the league lead with 102 Pass Attempts through 2 games. This has accounted for a league leading 76% of offensive plays coming via the pass. This has led to the emergence of John Ross III as a top fantasy WR. However, now I am talking about Mixon who only has 27 Yards on 1.6 Yards per Carry in 2019. In Week 1, Mixon was battling an injury, but a healthy Mixon in Week 2 only saw 55% of snaps and was less effective than Week 1. The Bengals matchup this week doesn’t favor Mixon either as the Bills rank 10th in Opponent Rushing Yards and have only given up 1 Rushing TD through Week 2. The pass-first offense and a tough matchup this week, makes Mixon a Must Sit.

Stream of the Week

Josh Allen, Bills vs. CIN

Despite being close to QB1 territory, Allen remains a streamable option for fantasy as he is owned in only 55.6% of NFL.com leagues. Allen is currently tied for the QB lead in Rushing TD with 1 coming in each of the first two weeks. Allen has struggled passing this season passing for 2 TD and 2 INT, but his rushing performances have been outstanding averaging 3.5 YPC and 2 TD. The matchup this week against the Bengals should be great for Allen as the Bengals in 2018 gave up the 5th most Rushing Yards to QBs on the 2nd most Attempts. Beyond the rushing numbers, in 2018 the Bengals gave up the 4th most Passing Yards and the 5th most Passing TD. If you were affected by the injuries to Ben Roesthlisberger, Drew Brees, Cam Newton and others, Allen is an excellent option for Week 3 and a Must Stream.

Stash of the Week

James Washington, Steelers

Since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2018, Washington has yet to become the consistent receiver that the Steelers were hoping for. In college, Washington was a dynamic WR for Oklahoma State where is QB was Mason Rudolph, who now finds himself at the helm of the Steelers offense. During their time in college, Washington was responsible for 31.5% of Rudolph's Passing Yards on 20.3 Yards per Reception. The Steelers will likely try to take advantage of the chemistry that Washington and Rudolph have with Roesthlisberger being injured. Beyond Washington’s potential, the current WR2 for the Steelers, Donte Moncrief has struggled mightily with a 27.2% catch rate and was benched in Week 2. In a deeper league Washington could be a sneaky play if he is able to connect with Rudolph, but he is worth a roster spot in all leagues on the potential for the big plays with Rudolph at the helm which makes him a Must Stash.

Sources:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/

https://www.espn.com

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/

https://fantasy.nfl.com

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