What Would Have Been the Best Bets in Super Bowl LIV?

By: Nick Mlodzienski

The Super Bowl is the most bet on game of the year. It is estimated that over 26 million Americans will bet $6.8 billion on the Big Game. Sportsbooks are notorious for allowing avid bettors to place crazy prop bets, such as the national anthem, or the puppy bowl that takes place earlier in the day. Here, we will break down top picks for Super Bowl LIV. Odds are per Bovada. Team stats are per Teamrankings and Football Outsiders. Player stats are per ESPN.

  • 49ers ML (EVEN)
    • Although the legendary Bear Bryant quote “Defense Wins Championships” may sway some bettors, it may not apply in this game. The point total of 54.5 is valid due to the emergence of the 49ers run game and the stardom of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. I believe the rush attack led by rising star Raheem Mostert will allow the 49ers to control the time of possession, keeping the pressure off the surprise team of the year. More importantly, it will prevent Mahomes to the 49ers defense. The 49ers rank 4th in time of possession per game, while the Chiefs rank 21st in opponent’s possession per game. I have the spread at +1.5, but I would certainly take +2 or +2.5 if I could.
  • Raheem Mostert OVER 77.5 rushing yards (-110) – With over 220 rush yards in the NFC Championship Game, Mostert has quickly become overvalued in many prop bets. However, Kansas City’s 29th ranked rush defense should be no match for Mostert and the 49ers offensive line, which ranks 5th in rushing yards per attempt. The regression of Matt Breida and the injury of Tevin Coleman should also boost his yard total.
  • “First team to 10 points” – 49ers (-105) – If you watched the Chiefs in the playoffs, you know both games resulted in slow, frustrating starts for the Chiefs. I think Andy Reid’s playoff history, recent and historic, will help the 49ers rush out to a quick enough start to cash this prop.
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorers
    • Kendrick Bourne (+250) - After a touchdown catch in the divisional round vs the Vikings, Bourne only logged one catch in the blowout NFC Championship Win against the Packers. The 49ers mainly resorted to the run game after grabbing a commanding lead. I think there is value in Bourne as a potential unsung hero in the Super Bowl due to the offensive creativity of Kyle Shanahan.
    • Patrick Mahomes (+400) – We all saw Mahomes’ electric touchdown run to end the first half against the Titans, and we know his superstar potential. I expect the 49ers pass rush to cause Mahomes scramble, possibly towards the endzone.
  • Color of Liquid Dumped on the Game Winning Coach – Red (+135) – Both teams have a red base color. The odds will only go down further as more people place the obvious bet. Grab it while the value is still reasonable.
  • Demi Lovato UNDER 2:04 (EVEN) – Demi Lovato’s comeback begins with the Super Bowl National Anthem. After rehab, she is looking to make a statement on the national stage. However, 2:04 is A LONG time. She has sung the national anthem at the national stage twice before, once at 1:58 at the 2015 world series, and at 2:12 at the 2017 McGregor-Mayweather fight. I think this will be a more mature and humble performance as a testament to her reborn lifestyle after rehab, and I expect there to be a lot of value on the under.

Reference

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/record-number-of-bets-expected-for-super-bowl.html

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